Stock Trader Man

Dow Jones up 217 @ 8,280 (this is now looking positive as the 8,000 level is very much in rear view mirror)

CRB Index up 3.0 @ 224.36

Oil down 41.00 @$40.17

Copper up 12.85 @ $162.85 (This is a significant move higher indicating demand is returning)

U.S 10 year yield @ 3.00% ( Take profit on shorts entered at the 2.30 yield level)

Gold down $1.80 @ $912.50 (This will hit $1,000, if it retraces to $870 then add to longs)

THE HINDSIGHT

1.600,000 Americans lost their jobs in January and this will only get worse..it really isn’t viable to trade off these dire numbers as we know the macro picture. The market on Friday was extremly positive as it rallied over 200 points a sure sign we are going higher especially as we pull further away from the critical 8,000 level.

2.ANZ and Nab were dissappointing in their profit statements but it could have been much worse, again a sign much of the bad news is priced in. Well, as for News Corp and an $8bln write down plus a gloomy earnings forecast in an economy where advertising is the 1st casualty …just don’t go there!

3. I refuse to mention the Obama stimulus package…its getting more coverage than David Beckham’s latest haircut.

THE CALENDAR

This week sees very little in the news in the rising death toll with no economic data until Wednesday when the U.S Trade Figures are published(expect a deficit of $36 bln). On Thursday we see retail sales , expected down 0.8% and business inventories expected down also 0.8%. Friday we see the consumer sentiment where 500 families are interviewed about future prospects…er , that will be a no brainer! (expected 61)

THE FORESIGHT

On Wednesday we see the profit figures for CBA. although already flagged to the market last week we still don’t know whether the sacred dividend will be maintained or cut…forget about an increase.I believe a cut of around 20% is factored in so should they maintain the dividend then this stock is as cheap as the proverbial. As I mentioned on CNBC on Friday I think around $29 they are a screaming buy to target the $34 resistance level in the short term.

I also like the small to medium commodity stocks. Beach petroleum is cheap at 70 cents as is the more speculative CBH at 4 cents to target the recent highs of 7 cents. Also Fortesque Metals is showing signs on the charts of a sizeable move up to target the $5.50 level, again the recent rally in copper and other commodities adds to the positive picture;when the charts and the fundamentals point the same way then don’t argue!

On Friday I took profits on RHG at 18 cents having been long from 11 cents. I would take profits on BHP at around $33.80/$34.00 level and look to re-enter around $28.50/75 level. Remember we are still very much in a traders market; hardly an investors buy and hold market!

I strongly recommend you visit my companies “other” research at www.trendinvest.com.au

Have a great day.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Never ask a Barber if you need a haircut”